Under the El Nino Shadow: IMD Sounds Monsoon Warning

El Nino’s shadow has returned to India’s weather forecast. The India Meteorological Department recognized the phenomenon that started over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and expected it to intensify with the ongoing southwest monsoon.  

 El Nino – the natural Pacific weather cycle that pushes up the world’s temperature – has officially kicked in, according to US scientists. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that El Niño conditions are underway across the tropical Pacific and have risen sharply at the ocean surface in recent months .Many forecasts suggest this could end up, in fact, as a super El Niño and even one of the strongest that has ever been recorded. Added to that long-standing human-caused warming, another record hot year from here-on, possibly in 2027 – disrupted weather, food supplies and economies running deep into that year. This announcement by NOAA comes as no surprise, as forecasters have been expecting the onset of this warming phase after the cooler “sister” pattern, La Nina, came to an end earlier this year.  

 Now, sea surface temperatures across the central and tropical Pacific have surpassed the 0.5C above-average threshold, which is the one US scientists use to define an El Niño event. Furthermore, both the ocean and atmosphere have responded to the warming of the ocean; this indicates that the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is now firmly in an El-Nino state. The development of ‘El Nino’ conditions has occurred over the past month due to the above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean as reported by NOAA. In addition, NOAA has also observed changes in the winds above the equatorial Pacific, further indicating that the atmosphere is now responding to the warmer ocean rather than just from the ocean itself warming. The IMD has also noted that significant positive temperature anomalies are present below the water surface throughout many areas of the equatorial Pacific, indicating that warmer water will continue to rise to the surface reinforcing the El Nino event.  

 Nonetheless, the IMD stated that while El Nino is responsible for some of the changes occurring in the Indian monsoon, it is not the only influencing factor in the Indian monsoon; furthermore, the IMD noted that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions currently exist and will mostly likely continue to exist for the entire monsoon season and due to being neutral, they will likely not have any noteworthy amplification or offsetting of the El Nino.  

Additionally, Japan’s Meteorological Agency has formally announced that El Nino began occurring. As the monsoon season unfolds, close monitoring and timely preparedness measures will be crucial to reducing risks and protecting vulnerable communities.