Moody’s Upgrades JSW Steel Outlook to Positive Amid Growth Plans

New Delhi, India: Moody’s Ratings has upgraded its outlook on JSW Steel and its US-based arm Periama Holdings LLC from stable to positive.The move reflects JSW Steel’s significant expansion in operating scale, reinforcing its status as India’s largest steel producer.

Rationale Behind Upgrade

Ramp-up of recently completed projects is expected to drive higher earnings.

The company is projected to manage debt refinancing proactively while executing growth plans with financial discipline.

Production capacity has increased by 20% over 15 months to 35.7 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), with a planned additional 20% growth by 2028.

Growth & Earnings Outlook

FY25: Commissioned 6 mtpa of crude steel capacity in India.

Upcoming projects:

Vijayanagar and Salem: +2.2 mtpa through debottlenecking in 12 months

Dolvi: +5 mtpa by FY28

Bhushan Power and Steel (BPSL): +0.5 mtpa by FY28

Expected steel sales:

FY25-26: 28.5 mt

FY26-27: ~32 mt

Earnings forecast:

FY25-26: ₹300 billion

FY26-27: ₹350 billion

EBITDA per tonne expected: ₹10,500–10,750, aligned with 10-year average.

Market Context

India is the world’s second-largest steel market, with consumption growing over 10% annually for the past four years.

Steel demand projected to grow 5–7% CAGR till 2030, fueled by infrastructure, construction, and industrial expansion.