India Seeks Concessions in Mini Trade Deal With US, Agreement Likely Within 48 Hours: Sources

An interim trade agreement between India and the United States is expected to be finalized within the next 48 hours, according to sources who spoke to NDTV on Thursday. Ongoing negotiations in Washington have led India’s trade delegation to extend its stay in an effort to resolve key sticking points ahead of the July 9 deadline, when the temporary suspension of U.S. tariffs is set to expire.

Talks have reached a deadlock on several contentious issues, particularly Washington’s push for India to allow genetically modified (GM) crops—a move New Delhi has long resisted due to potential risks to its agricultural sector. The U.S. has also been demanding broader access to India’s agricultural and dairy markets. However, sources told NDTV Profit that these sectors are likely to remain excluded from the deal due to domestic concerns over rural livelihoods and food safety.

India, in turn, is lobbying for significant tariff reductions on its labor-intensive exports such as garments, footwear, and leather—key sectors for employment generation. Indian negotiators have emphasized that a deal without reciprocal tariff cuts would fall short of the broader objective to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030.

“We estimate that once the interim trade deal is finalized, Indian exports to the U.S. could double in the next three years,” said Ajay Sahai, CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), in a statement to NDTV.

According to NDTV Profit, the current focus of the deal centers on mutual tariff reductions, as officials from both sides urge prioritization of lower duty barriers.

On Tuesday, former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism, stating that a deal with India was imminent and would involve significantly reduced tariffs. “India doesn’t let anyone in right now. But if they open up, we’ll have a deal with far fewer tariffs,” he said.

India and the U.S. have been negotiating a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) to avoid the reinstatement of a 26% reciprocal tariff, initially imposed by the Trump administration on April 2. The tariff was temporarily paused for 90 days but will be automatically reimposed if no deal is reached by the deadline.

A senior official told ANI, “Failure to reach an agreement will result in the immediate reactivation of the 26% tariff regime.” However, some sources suggested that the impact on India may be minimal, as the tariff rate remains relatively low compared to other global competitors.

India’s firm stance highlights the political and economic sensitivities surrounding its agriculture sector, which is largely composed of small-scale, subsistence farmers. Conceding to U.S. demands in this area would be politically challenging. Notably, India has never included dairy in any previous free trade agreements, and it appears unlikely to change that position despite mounting pressure from Washington.