Monsoon Set for Early Onset in Kerala: IMD Predicts May 27 Arrival

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the Southwest Monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala on May 27, 2024, marking the earliest onset since 2022. This is four days ahead of the usual June 1 date, signaling favorable conditions for agriculture but raising concerns about extreme weather risks. The early onset aligns with IMD’s forecast of above-average rainfall (106% of the long-period average) during the 2024 monsoon season, critical for India’s agrarian economy.

What Could be the Causes?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) attributes the monsoon’s early arrival to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This refers to a tropical weather system currently in a phase that amplifies cloud formation and rainfall over India. Simultaneously, a cyclonic circulation over the South Bay of Bengal is drawing moisture-laden winds toward Kerala’s coast. This adds to accelerating the monsoon’s advance. These systems, combined with favorable wind patterns and warmer equatorial Indian Ocean temperatures, have created optimal conditions for an early onset. The declaration follows predefined criteria, including sustained rainfall over Kerala, wind speed thresholds, and reduced outgoing longwave radiation—a measure of cloud cover. Together, these interconnected atmospheric and oceanic factors have propelled the monsoon’s earliest arrival since 2022.

Historical Context and Trends – The Trends Witnessed in Erratic Monsoon

This year’s May 27 onset is the earliest since 2022, reflecting shifting monsoon patterns. Over the past decade, Kerala has witnessed increased variability in monsoon arrival dates, with 2019 and 2021 also seeing early onsets. Climate scientists suggest such fluctuations may be linked to global warming, which intensifies oceanic and atmospheric phenomena like the MJO. Studies indicate that climate change is amplifying monsoon variability, leading to uneven rainfall distribution and more frequent extreme weather. While 2024’s forecast is optimistic, experts warn that long-term resilience requires improved water management and climate-adaptive farming practices.

Anything For Future?

The early monsoon onset brings hope for agricultural prosperity. However, it underscores the urgency of adaptive strategies in the face of climate volatility. As India braces for the rainy season, coordination between meteorologists, policymakers, and farmers will be pivotal. This goes for maximizing benefits and minimizing risks.