KOLKATA: With West Bengal’s political temperature rising ahead of the upcoming Assembly bypolls, BJP leader and state minister Dilip Ghosh has projected confidence in the party’s prospects, asserting that voters have extended their “full support” to the Bharatiya Janata Party and predicting a decisive victory in the two constituencies going to the polls next month. 

Ghosh’s comments came shortly after the Election Commission announced bypolls for Nandigram in Purba Medinipur and Rejinagar in Murshidabad, turning the two constituencies into an early political test for the BJP government in Bengal. Polling is scheduled for October 6, while counting will take place on October 9. 

Speaking to reporters in Kolkata on Tuesday, Ghosh said the BJP was confident of victory and claimed that the mood among voters was favourable to the ruling party. He argued that the government was taking decisions with confidence, continuing its work and receiving a positive response from the public.

“BJP is going to win. The people have given full support to BJP,” Ghosh said, adding that he expected voters to back the party and predicted a victory by a “huge margin”. 

The assertion is significant because the two bypolls carry very different political equations. Nandigram has long occupied an unusually prominent place in Bengal politics, while Rejinagar represents a different electoral landscape in Murshidabad, where local political equations and the emergence of smaller parties could influence the contest.

Why Nandigram is once again at the centre of Bengal politics

Nandigram’s importance goes well beyond the boundaries of a single Assembly constituency. The seat has been at the heart of Bengal’s political transformation for nearly two decades and has repeatedly emerged as a symbolic battleground between the BJP and Trinamool Congress.

The latest bypoll was necessitated after Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari resigned from Nandigram while retaining Bhowanipore. Adhikari had contested the 2026 Assembly election from both constituencies and won both, before choosing to continue as the MLA from Bhowanipore. 

His decision left Nandigram vacant and set the stage for another closely watched electoral contest. Adhikari has, however, maintained that giving up the Assembly seat does not mean abandoning the constituency. During his resignation, he stressed that his relationship with Nandigram was not dependent on holding an elected position and promised to remain involved with the area’s development and public life. 

The BJP now faces the challenge of converting Adhikari’s personal political influence and the party’s organisational strength into an electoral mandate for its next candidate.

The stakes are particularly high because Nandigram has become closely associated with Adhikari’s political rise. He defeated Mamata Banerjee there in 2021 and subsequently emerged as one of the BJP’s most influential leaders in Bengal. In the 2026 Assembly election, he again won Nandigram before vacating the seat. 

For the BJP, therefore, retaining Nandigram would carry significance far beyond adding one more seat to its Assembly tally. It would strengthen the narrative that the constituency has consolidated behind the saffron party even after Adhikari moved to another seat.

Rejinagar presents a very different challenge

Rejinagar, meanwhile, offers a more complicated political picture.

The seat was won in the 2026 Assembly election by Humayun Kabir, founder of the Aam Janata Unnayan Party, after he contested from more than one constituency. Kabir subsequently vacated Rejinagar, creating the vacancy that has now triggered the bypoll. 

The 2026 result itself demonstrated the unusual electoral dynamics of the constituency. Kabir secured more than 1.23 lakh votes, while BJP’s Bapan Ghosh finished second with more than 64,000 votes. The Trinamool Congress candidate was placed third. 

That background makes Ghosh’s prediction of a BJP victory particularly noteworthy. Unlike Nandigram, where the BJP has a powerful incumbent political identity associated with Adhikari, Rejinagar requires the party to overcome a fragmented electoral landscape and build a fresh campaign around the bypoll.

The contest could consequently become a test of whether the BJP can expand beyond its established strongholds and translate its broader statewide mandate into support in constituencies where regional and individual political factors remain influential.

BJP seeks to turn government performance into electoral support

Ghosh’s remarks also reveal the central argument the BJP is likely to carry into the campaign: that voter satisfaction with the new government will translate directly into electoral support.

He pointed to the government’s decision-making and ongoing work as evidence of public approval, saying people were happy with its performance. 

The strategy is straightforward but politically consequential. Rather than treating the bypolls merely as constituency-level contests, the BJP appears keen to present them as an early referendum on its governance after taking power in Bengal.

Such an approach could raise the importance of the October contests considerably. A strong BJP performance would allow the party to argue that its electoral support remains intact beyond the 2026 Assembly election and that the new administration has quickly consolidated its position.

For the opposition, however, the bypolls offer an opportunity to challenge that narrative. The campaigns are likely to focus not only on local candidates and constituency-specific issues but also on the performance of the new government.

October 6 vote could set the political tone for Bengal

The Election Commission’s schedule has now given political parties a clear campaign calendar. The election notification is due on September 9, nominations will continue until September 16, scrutiny will take place on September 17, and candidates can withdraw their nominations until September 19. Polling will be held on October 6, followed by counting on October 9. 

That leaves the parties with a limited window to finalise candidates, mobilise their organisations and frame the campaign narrative.

For the BJP, the immediate objective will be to ensure that Ghosh’s confidence is reflected on the ground. Political predictions made before polling can create momentum, but bypolls often turn on local factors, candidate selection, turnout and the ability of parties to mobilise voters constituency by constituency.

Nandigram in particular will command intense attention because of its history and its direct connection with Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari. Rejinagar, on the other hand, could become a more unpredictable contest because of the presence of regional political forces and the electoral base previously demonstrated by Humayun Kabir.

A test beyond two Assembly seats

Although only two constituencies are involved, the political implications of the October 6 contest could extend well beyond the immediate results.

A BJP victory in both seats would strengthen the government’s claim that its support base remains robust and that voters are prepared to endorse its governance even in bypoll conditions. A strong performance in Nandigram would additionally reinforce the BJP’s hold over a constituency that has become one of the defining symbols of Bengal’s political shift.

Any setback, however, would provide the opposition with an opportunity to question the BJP’s claim of broad public approval.

For now, Dilip Ghosh has made his position unequivocal: the BJP expects victory, believes the electorate has already extended its support and is entering the contest with the confidence of securing both constituencies. 

But the final verdict will come from the ballot box. On October 6, Nandigram and Rejinagar will offer the first significant electoral test of the political mood in Bengal since the Assembly election, with the results on October 9 likely to determine whether the BJP’s confidence translates into numbers.